To gauge current home-buying sentiment, we triangulate leading indicators and hard market data: Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), University of Michigan’s Buying Conditions for Houses, The Conference Board’s buying‑plans series, and NAR market metrics, paired with mortgage‑rate benchmarks (the weekly Freddie Mac PMMS, MBA Weekly Applications Survey, and daily OBMMI) plus home‑price indices (FHFA HPI and S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller). As of early November 2025, average 30‑year fixed mortgage rates sit broadly in the mid‑6% to low‑7% range nationally, with 15‑year fixed typically ~0.75–1.0 percentage point lower and common ARMs ~0.5–1.0 point below 30‑year fixed for well‑qualified borrowers, per PMMS/OBMMI. Price gauges show national prices near record highs, and NAR reported a record median existing‑home price of about $426,900 in June 2024, underscoring persistent affordability headwinds (NAR Existing‑Home Sales).
Table of Contents
Study Findings
- Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index: The “good time to buy” share remains near historic lows, with only about one in five consumers saying it’s a good time to buy through 2024 and into 2025, reflecting high rates and prices (HPSI).
- University of Michigan’s Index: Reported home‑buying conditions have hovered near multi‑decade lows as consumers cite elevated prices and financing costs; this aligns with weak buyer sentiment captured in the HPSI and price/rate levels referenced above.
- The Conference Board: Buying‑plans for homes typically sit around roughly 4%–5% of consumers planning to purchase within six months—below pre‑pandemic norms—consistent with subdued demand signals seen in mortgage application data from the MBA Weekly Applications Survey.
- Gender Gap: Recent national buyer surveys show women are less likely than men to be “very confident” about qualifying for a mortgage, affording a down payment, and competing in offers—gaps commonly in the mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens percentage points. Despite this, single women again outpaced single men among recent purchasers (Zillow Consumer Housing Trends Report 2024; NAR Profile highlights).
Affordability Factors
Financing costs remain a primary constraint. As of early November 2025, national benchmarks place the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate in the mid‑6% to low‑7% range, while 15‑year fixed averages generally run ~0.75–1.0 percentage point lower and popular ARMs are ~0.5–1.0 point below 30‑year fixed for well‑qualified borrowers (PMMS; OBMMI). Given payment sensitivity, a 1.0 percentage‑point rate change shifts the principal‑and‑interest on a $400,000 30‑year loan by roughly $260–$270 per month. Elevated mortgage–Treasury spreads since 2022 have kept rates high relative to the 10‑year yield (Fed H.15). Application‑rate readings and points/fees vary by tracker and borrower profile; consult PMMS/MBA for weekly averages and OBMMI for intraday color (MBA).
Home prices compound the affordability squeeze. National repeat‑sales indices show prices at or near record highs with year‑over‑year gains in the mid‑single digits by late 2024 (FHFA HPI; Case‑Shiller). NAR reported the national median existing‑home price hit an all‑time monthly high of about $426,900 in June 2024 before seasonal cooling (NAR). Limited inventory—especially in entry‑level segments—continues to support prices despite slower sales (Redfin Data Center). Family help eases but doesn’t eliminate hurdles: the 2024 NAR Profile shows roughly one in ten to one in seven buyers overall used gift/loan assistance, versus roughly one in four to one in three among first‑time buyers; around four in ten FHA purchase borrowers used gift funds (NAR Profile highlights 2024; HUD FY2024 FHA Annual Report). Financial readiness tends to improve with age; the typical first‑time buyer’s median age is 35, with a median 8% down payment and first‑time share at 32% (NAR Profile).
Home Buyer Demographics
The typical first‑time buyer is 35 years old, and first‑timers comprised 32% of all buyers with a median 8% down payment—indicators of strained affordability relative to historic norms (NAR Profile). Millennials remain a leading cohort of recent purchasers but face tight budgets amid elevated rates and record prices (PMMS; FHFA HPI). Survey evidence shows many millennials adapt rather than exit: delaying timelines, lowering budgets, or targeting more affordable locations (Zillow CHR 2024; HPSI). Women maintain strong participation—single women again outpaced single men—yet report lower “very confident” responses (often by mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens percentage points) across mortgage qualification, down‑payment readiness, and offer competitiveness (Zillow CHR 2024; NAR Profile highlights).
Study Methodology
- Scope and timing: Sentiment and rate context reflect early November 2025 benchmarks (PMMS; MBA; OBMMI), while price levels and trends use the latest national indices available through late 2024 (FHFA HPI; Case‑Shiller) and NAR monthly medians (Existing‑Home Sales). Sentiment sources include HPSI, University of Michigan’s buying conditions for houses, and The Conference Board’s buying‑plans series.
- Measurement notes: PMMS is a weekly average of offered rates; MBA reports average contract rates on applications; OBMMI provides daily lock‑rate indices and often moves 10–20 bps around major data. Closed‑loan averages are captured by FHFA MIRS. Mortgage rates track the 10‑year Treasury plus an elevated spread since 2022 (Fed H.15).
- Population and definitions: Statistics are U.S. consumer‑focused; demographic and buyer‑mix details come from NAR’s Profile and related briefs (NAR Profile; NAR Generational Trends). Price context uses FHFA/Case‑Shiller; inventory context uses Redfin Data Center.
- Refresh cadence and citation best practices: Figures update weekly/monthly; always date‑stamp rate citations (PMMS/MBA weekly; OBMMI daily) and pair with points/APR. Use FHFA/Case‑Shiller for trend validation and NAR/Census for price levels. Note that results vary month to month and seasonally, and intraweek rate volatility may not be fully captured by weekly averages.
Key Challenges
Millennials and first‑time buyers face a convergence of headwinds: mid‑6% to low‑7% average 30‑year mortgage rates (PMMS; OBMMI), record‑level home prices (FHFA HPI; Case‑Shiller), and resumed student‑loan payments. Roughly 43 million borrowers hold nearly $1.6T in student debt; payments resumed in Oct 2023 and the on‑ramp ended in Sep 2024, with research showing higher delinquency on other debts among student‑loan borrowers, weighing on mortgage readiness (New York Fed Household Debt and Credit; CFPB Issue Spotlight). Underwriting rules matter: conventional loans can use the documented income‑driven repayment (including $0 under SAVE), whereas FHA typically uses 0.5% of the balance if the reported payment is $0—making product selection and documentation pivotal (Fannie Mae Selling Guide; U.S. Department of Education SAVE updates). Cash‑to‑close remains a hurdle given closing costs, MIP/guarantee fees on FHA/USDA, and the prevalence of discount points; roughly one point often buys down ~0.25 percentage point in rate, and each 1.0 percentage‑point change in rate moves a $400,000 payment by about $260–$270. MBA purchase‑application trends have been subdued, corroborating weak near‑term demand (MBA Weekly Applications Survey).
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Multiple indicators point to persistently cautious home‑buying sentiment relative to pre‑pandemic norms: the HPSI “good time to buy” share remains near record lows (Fannie Mae); average 30‑year rates are in the mid‑6% to low‑7% range as of early November 2025 (PMMS); price indices are near record highs (FHFA; Case‑Shiller); and inventory remains tight in many markets (Redfin Data Center).
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