With news in 2019 that more electric cars had sold than those with manual transmissions, and growing calls on social media to #SaveTheManuals, the Reviews.com automobile research team revisited the topic with current market evidence: in the U.S., manuals account for only about 1–2% of new light-vehicle sales (roughly 1.7% in 2023) and represented less than 1% of model-year 2023 light-duty production, while electrification and hybridization are pulling the market even further toward automatics and single-speed EV drivetrains.
The research team took a survey of 2,074 U.S. residents, asking them how confident they are when it comes to driving a manual transmission vehicle and compared those self-reports with external data on availability, market share, and training trends. Today’s market is shaped by limited manual offerings, strong dominance of automatics in mature markets, and shifting driver education, with a small but passionate cohort still seeking manuals for engagement (Hagerty; YouGov).
Survey Findings:
- U.S. market niche: Manuals represented about 1.7% of new-vehicle sales in 2023, while manuals were under 1% of MY2023 production, underscoring that automatics are the default in the U.S. new-vehicle fleet.
- Generational familiarity is falling, but enthusiasm persists: Broad surveys find younger adults are less likely to know how to drive stick, yet a niche of younger enthusiasts actively prefers manuals for engagement (YouGov; Hagerty).
- Automatics dominate mature markets: In the EU, around 70–75% of 2023 new-car registrations used automatics. In the UK, automatics accounted for over four in five registrations in 2024, a record high.
- Emerging market shift: In India, automatics (AT/AMT/CVT/DCT combined) climbed to about 31% of passenger-vehicle sales in FY2024, up sharply year over year, although manuals remain the majority there.
- Model availability keeps shrinking: While CNBC, citing Edmunds, recently pegged manual availability at about 13% of models, current lists show only a few dozen manual-equipped models for 2025, translating to roughly about one in ten U.S. nameplates (≈9–11%) offering a manual; mainstream models continue to drop the option (e.g., VW GTI manual ended after 2024) with a few enthusiast additions (e.g., 2025 BMW Z4 manual; see also Consumer Reports).
- Driver education is deprioritizing manual training: Official data show automatic-car tests have overtaken manual in Great Britain (DVSA); Germany’s B197 lets learners test in an automatic and gain manual entitlement via a short module; Japan reports a record share of automatic-only licenses among new drivers (NPA via Japan Times). In the U.S., manuals’ near-disappearance in new production (EPA) means most training fleets are automatic/EV.
- Safety context and distraction: There is no authoritative U.S. crash statistic showing manuals are safer or less safe than automatics. Meanwhile, distraction remains significant: 3,308 people were killed and an estimated 289,310 injured in distraction-involved crashes in 2022.
The trend of younger generations being less likely to know how to drive a manual transmission is reinforced by product mix: EVs use single-speed reduction gears and most hybrids pair with e‑CVTs or automatic systems, reducing exposure to clutched manuals in everyday ownership and training. Manuals persist mainly in niche/performance models where engagement is valued (model lists; enthusiast demand).
First, many major car companies have deprioritized manufacturing manual transmission cars at scale. Only 13% of car models are now available with manual transmission according to data obtained by CNBC and Edmunds, and current counts indicate roughly 9–11% of MY2025 U.S. nameplates still offer a manual (Car and Driver; Consumer Reports). The product pipeline reflects the shift: some long-running manuals have ended (VW GTI), while a few enthusiast models add or retain manuals (BMW Z4; Mustang/Civic/BRZ/911, etc.). In sales terms, manuals remain a small niche at about 1.7% of U.S. new-vehicle purchases in 2023, and across the fleet they comprise under 1% of MY2023 light-duty production.
Where Did The Demand Go?
Three forces are driving the decline in manual familiarity. First, electrification: battery-electric vehicles standardize around single-speed drivetrains, and most hybrids use e‑CVTs or hybridized automatics, structurally limiting manual availability. Second, model availability is shrinking outside enthusiast niches, as OEMs prioritize efficiency, emissions compliance, and ADAS integration (EPA Automotive Trends). Third, driver education is aligning with an automatic/EV reality: automatic tests have overtaken manual in Great Britain (DVSA), Germany’s B197 pathway minimizes manual instruction time, and Japan reports record-high automatic-only licensing among new drivers (NPA via Japan Times).
While it isn’t popular to admit, many drivers report being more distracted now than ever. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports 3,308 people were killed and an estimated 289,310 were injured in distraction-involved crashes in 2022. Self-reported behaviors remain widespread—about three in ten drivers say they text/email and roughly four in ten report handheld calling in the past month (AAA Foundation). Telematics analyses show phone-interaction time per driving hour at new highs and distraction present in a majority of captured crashes (CMT 2025). Safety bodies are tightening expectations: in 2024, IIHS found no partial-automation system earned a “good” safeguard rating, and Euro NCAP will penalize heavy touchscreen reliance in 2026. Notably, there is no authoritative U.S. crash statistic demonstrating manuals are safer or less safe than automatics.
“I love the feel of a manual transmission when I want it, but most of the time I’m driving I don’t want to focus that much on the mechanics,” one person said in regards to why they won’t be buying a stick shift anytime soon. “It’s another thing I have to think about while driving.” This reflects the broader split between a small enthusiast cohort that values engagement and a mainstream that prioritizes convenience and availability (Hagerty).
Future Trends
Reviews.com researchers expect manual familiarity to keep shrinking as EVs and hybrids expand and automatic transmissions remain standard in ICE segments. In the U.S., manual take rates are likely to hover around the low single digits (recently ~1–2%), with availability near “about one in ten” models for MY2025 (Edmunds; Car and Driver). In Europe and the UK, automatics already dominate registrations (ACEA 2023; SMMT 2024). In India, automatic share is rising quickly from a lower base (~31% in FY2024).
It seems safe to state that the above trend will continue, with new generations of drivers even less likely to feel comfortable driving stick shifts than their predecessors. Manuals won’t disappear, but they will remain concentrated in enthusiast and specialty models, supported by a small but vocal buyer base. From a safety perspective, current national data do not show a crash-risk difference by transmission type; reducing distraction (e.g., via better HMIs and driver monitoring) is the priority (IIHS; Euro NCAP; NHTSA).
Survey Methodology
- The survey collected 2,074 responses from U.S. residents asking them to assess their confidence in driving a manual transmission.
- Survey conducted online over January 2–7.
Image credit: F8 Studio / Shutterstock
