The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration signaled an extremely active end to the hurricane season in past communications; for 2025, leading outlook groups indicate the Atlantic is tilted toward an above‑normal season due to exceptionally warm Main Development Region sea‑surface temperatures and ENSO conditions leaning neutral to La Niña. Track real‑time storms and advisories at the National Hurricane Center, follow ENSO status via NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and see preseason ranges from Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk. Copernicus monthly bulletins document the persistent Atlantic warmth underpinning these outlooks (Copernicus).
Here’s how to assess your home for hurricane risk, how to make sure you have the best homeowners insurance to cover hurricane damage, and expert tips on buying coverage early enough to avoid insurer binding moratoriums and the NFIP’s standard 30‑day waiting period.
2025 outlook: Signals point above normal; compare activity to the 1991–2020 averages.
NOAA issues its main seasonal outlook in late May with a mid‑season update in early August, classifying activity relative to the 1991–2020 climatology of about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (ACE ~123). Given record‑warm tropical Atlantic SSTs and a neutral‑to‑La Niña ENSO backdrop, NOAA, CSU, and TSR have signaled an above‑normal lean for 2025. For the exact preseason ranges and probabilities as they are released, consult NOAA’s seasonal outlooks and these independent groups, and verify season‑to‑date totals and ACE on the NHC site. Monitor ENSO probabilities via CPC and MDR SST anomalies in Copernicus bulletins.
Because the background environment favors more and longer‑lived storms, homeowners in coastal and near‑coastal areas should prepare well before the peak. Rapid intensification remains a notable risk; rely on NHC advisories and discussions for life‑safety guidance. Forecast skill continues to improve with NOAA’s next‑generation hurricane model (HAFS) and enhanced satellite monitoring from GOES‑U.
How to assess hurricane risk in your area
Hurricanes threaten with destructive wind, storm surge, and freshwater flooding. Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water generated by a storm above the predicted tide, and it often poses the greatest life‑safety risk. Use the NHC’s surge tools—the Storm Surge Watch/Warning and Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map—and its probabilistic guidance (P‑Surge) to understand where life‑threatening inundation is possible and how uncertainty affects outcomes.
For coastal detail and compound hazards, pair NHC products with complementary guidance like NOAA’s tide‑surge forecasts (ESTOFS) and the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast, which integrate tides, surge, and waves. Surge can not only flood homes but also close ports, interstates, and airports—plan evacuation triggers using local surge zones and the NHC’s earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical‑storm‑force winds.
Therefore, when assessing risk, start with storm‑surge exposure. The Insurance Information Institute ranked the storm surge risk by state; large exposure exists in states such as Florida, Louisiana, Texas, New Jersey, and New York.
- Florida
- Louisiana
- Texas
- New Jersey
- New York
Finding out if your area is prone to flooding is simple thanks to FEMA’s mapping tool. For the most current effective data, also use FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) and check upcoming changes via the Flood Map Changes Viewer. Under the NFIP’s Risk Rating 2.0, premiums are based on property‑specific risk factors rather than zone alone (FEMA Risk Rating 2.0). Over time, NOAA’s climate‑informed precipitation updates (Atlas 15) may drive future map revisions.
How to ensure you have the financial protection you need
A standard home insurance policy typically covers wind damage from hurricanes, but special wind, hurricane, or named‑storm deductibles often apply. In many coastal states, hurricane deductibles commonly range from about 1% to 5% of the insured dwelling limit, and some carriers set named‑storm deductibles with similar percentage structures or specified amounts; review your declarations for the exact trigger and amount (Insurance Information Institute). Your homeowner’s policy won’t cover any damage from flooding from storm surge or rising water.
To fill that gap, consider flood insurance. New National Flood Insurance Program policies generally have a 30‑day waiting period before coverage takes effect, with limited exceptions (e.g., lender‑required at loan closing), so don’t wait for a storm to form (FEMA FloodSmart). Risk Rating 2.0 sets premiums using property‑specific variables such as distance to water and first‑floor height (FEMA Risk Rating 2.0), and lenders typically require flood insurance in Special Flood Hazard Areas.
Along with adding flood insurance, timing plays a huge role in ensuring you have the protection you need. “Homeowners need to know of the no bind box,” says Zachary Staruch, managing broker for The Pelican Team Real Estate.
Insurers commonly impose temporary binding moratoriums when tropical cyclones threaten—often triggered by NHC watches and warnings (possible within 48 hours; expected within 36 hours). During these periods, companies typically won’t bind new policies, increase limits, add wind coverage, or reduce deductibles. State guidance acknowledges this practice (e.g., Texas Department of Insurance), and large residual markets publicly post binding suspensions aligned with NHC alerts (Citizens Property Insurance). If you’re buying a home, arrange homeowners and flood coverage well before any watches/warnings—and remember the NFIP’s 30‑day waiting period (FloodSmart).
By having homeowners and flood insurance in force ahead of hurricane season, you can better protect against wind and storm surge losses—while avoiding binding moratoriums and special hurricane/named‑storm deductibles from catching you off guard.
The bottom line
Signals point to an above‑normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2025. Tropical cyclones are the costliest U.S. weather peril in NOAA’s records, with cumulative losses exceeding a trillion dollars since 1980 and the highest average cost per event (NOAA NCEI Billion‑Dollar Disasters). In 2024, global insured catastrophe losses topped $100 billion for the fourth straight year, with hurricanes like Helene and Beryl contributing to multi‑billion‑dollar impacts (Aon; Swiss Re Institute; NHC Beryl report). If you live in or near a coastal area, use NHC surge tools—the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map and P‑Surge—check your flood zone via FEMA’s NFHL, and since even the best home insurance doesn’t usually cover flood damage, add flood insurance well in advance—accounting for the typical 30‑day waiting period—and review your hurricane or named‑storm deductible to avoid surprises.
